The Stories We Tell: Risk, Markets, and What Never Changes

Lately, I’ve been thinking about how we make sense of risk—not just through data and models but through the stories we tell ourselves about the world. It’s easy to get caught up in the idea that we’re living through unprecedented times, that the challenges we face today are entirely new. But history has a way of reminding us that patterns repeat, even if the specifics change.

I recently finished Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes by Morgan Housel, a book that takes a long historical view of uncertainty, risk, and human behavior. I’ve always been drawn to books that provide a broader perspective on market cycles and economic patterns. This one reminded me of This Time is Different by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, which I read in the early 2010s. That book shaped my thinking about financial crises by demonstrating how economic upheavals follow strikingly familiar paths, despite the insistence—time and time again—that this time will be different.

Housel’s book highlights a fundamental truth of risk management: unpredictable events are far more common than we assume, and their impacts can be enormous. But what struck me most was the way he flipped the narrative, focusing not just on uncertainty but on the constants—the things that don’t change. The core of his argument is that while markets shift, economies rise and fall, and technologies evolve, certain human behaviors remain the same. Fear and greed still drive financial decisions. Overconfidence still leads to speculation. Stories—not just numbers—continue to move markets.

This idea resonates with me more and more. I’ve spent years working in credit and risk, and while I trust data, I’ve seen firsthand how sentiment can override spreadsheets. A solid risk model is critical, but it’s just as important to understand how people react to perceived risk. Behavioral biases, cycles of optimism and panic, and the narratives we construct around money and markets play an outsized role in financial outcomes. It’s why two companies with nearly identical financials can experience vastly different trajectories—leadership, reputation, and investor sentiment often matter just as much as balance sheets.

That’s why books like Same as Ever are valuable. They remind us that risk isn’t just about forecasting volatility—it’s about recognizing what doesn’t change and adjusting our strategies accordingly. If you work in risk management, I highly recommend this book. It’s a great example of big-picture risk thinking and a compelling argument for why understanding human behavior is just as important as analyzing data.

At the end of the day, statistics may measure risk, but stories shape how we respond to it. And as much as I love data, I’m starting to appreciate the power of a well-told story just as much.